Northern Beaches Pokemon

Monthly Australian Trading Card Game Market Analysis

Australian TCG Market Report — September–October 2026

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NBTC Research

Reporting period: September 1–October 13, 2026 · Australian retail perspective with international market context · Prepared for Northern Beaches Trading Cards, Dee Why, NSW

Research note: October is still in progress. This report treats September as a completed month and October as month-to-date, rather than presenting October trends as final. NBTC’s sales-floor and online observations are identified as retailer intelligence; external market reports and confirmed product information are kept separate. Forecasts and unconfirmed release expectations are labelled accordingly.

PART 1 Executive Summary

September and the first half of October point to a TCG market where different games—and even different parts of the same game—are moving in opposite directions. NBTC’s retail experience suggests vintage Pokémon is strengthening while much of the modern Pokémon market is softening; One Piece sealed product continues to draw substantial attention; and Riftbound is becoming a more important part of the store’s singles and organised-play activity.

The clearest theme across NBTC’s observations is a shift in where customers are directing their spending. Vintage cards and the $10–$20 singles range remain particularly active, while modern Pokémon singles and Japanese products are moving more slowly. At the same time, strong release-event attendance and demand for One Piece and Riftbound singles suggest that competitive play, set releases and community participation remain important drivers of retail activity.

Key findings

  • Pokémon — a divided market. NBTC reports strong vintage demand and rising prices, but slower modern sales. The English and Japanese 30th Celebration products have attracted attention despite low card-market prices. The key question is whether this enthusiasm develops into sustained collector demand or remains driven by the anniversary cycle.
  • One Piece — sealed demand remains strong. NBTC reports a successful OP17 release, multiple events with more than 32 players, and several CREW cards pulled in-store. Expected reprints, upcoming EB05 Heroines Cup activity and interest in OP18 could sustain attention, although allocations and product supply will matter.
  • Riftbound — growth is increasingly visible at retail. NBTC reports a growing player base and a large influx of singles purchases both in-store and online. The post-ban metagame and the potential strength of green decks are important competitive developments to examine, while the late-October Radiance release provides a near-term catalyst.
  • The singles market is not moving uniformly. NBTC’s strongest reported price band is $10–$20, alongside pronounced interest in vintage. Modern Pokémon softness and slow Japanese-product turnover point to a more selective market rather than universal strength across all TCG inventory.
  • Release events are a commercial signal, not a national market statistic. Strong attendance at NBTC events indicates local engagement and demand for organised play. It should not be treated as proof of nationwide participation or used on its own to predict future card prices.

The central question for the next phase of 2026 is whether vintage Pokémon strength, One Piece sealed demand and Riftbound’s expanding player base can continue to support sales while modern Pokémon singles and slower-moving inventory face greater pressure.

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PART 2 Australian TCG Market Intelligence

A market of contrasting signals

NBTC’s September–October experience is consistent with a market in which collectors, competitive players and sealed-product buyers are making different purchasing decisions. Vintage Pokémon is reportedly gaining momentum, lower-priced singles remain active, and new releases continue to generate strong event attendance. However, this does not mean every modern set or every TCG is appreciating.

An important comparison comes from TCG Vault’s September 2026 report. Its index of English card printings worth at least US$10 showed Pokémon up 2.5%, One Piece down 5.7%, and Riftbound down 4.4% during September. The 100 most valuable cards in each game behaved differently: the top-value groups for One Piece and Riftbound rose 1.6% and 1.7%, respectively, despite their broader indexes falling.

These figures are international market context, not Australian retail results. The index uses TCGplayer and Cardmarket price histories, excludes newer sets until they have been available for at least 60 days, and does not measure sealed-product sales or Australian store turnover. It therefore cannot directly confirm or contradict NBTC’s experience with individual products.

What NBTC’s retail data adds

Three practical signals stand out from the store’s observations:

  • The $10–$20 singles bracket remains active. This is a useful retail segment to monitor because it can serve customers who want to add cards to collections or decks without committing to the cost of premium chase cards. NBTC reports that this price range continues to sell well, but the observation should not be treated as a quantified national trend.
  • Vintage demand is becoming more significant. NBTC reports increased interest and rising prices in vintage Pokémon. This warrants separate tracking from modern releases because older cards have different supply, condition and collector-demand dynamics.
  • New releases are still drawing customers into stores. Strong attendance at NBTC’s release events suggests that organised play and the experience of opening a new set remain valuable parts of the hobby. They also create opportunities for singles purchases, trading and repeat visits.

Implications for Australian retailers

The practical challenge is inventory balance. A retailer can see strong demand in vintage Pokémon and competitive singles while holding modern products that are selling more slowly. In that environment, historical sales velocity and current customer demand are more useful buying signals than broad claims that the entire TCG market is either rising or falling.

For NBTC, the current observations support keeping close watch on three distinct categories: vintage and collector-driven Pokémon; playable singles and event-linked products in One Piece and Riftbound; and modern or Japanese inventory with slower turnover. Stock decisions should account for how quickly capital returns to the business, not just whether a card or sealed product might appreciate over time.

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PART 3 Pokémon Market Intelligence

Vintage strength versus modern softness

NBTC’s clearest Pokémon observation is the split between vintage and modern. Vintage cards are reportedly attracting more buying interest, with prices rising sharply in some areas, while modern singles are slowing. This distinction matters: Pokémon is not one uniform market, and aggregate price indexes can obscure the differences between older sets, newly released chase cards, playable cards and sealed products.

External September data offers a useful contrast. TCG Vault’s international index recorded a 2.5% increase across eligible Pokémon printings worth at least US$10. Yet several modern sets fell during the same month: Mega Evolution—Ascended Heroes declined 13.4%, Destined Rivals declined 12.2%, and Mega Evolution declined 8.6% in that source’s set-level measure. Meanwhile, older Pokémon sets including Aquapolis and POP Series 4 recorded increases of 23.8% and 26.8%, respectively.

TCG Vault

This is consistent with a market in which established collector demand can strengthen even as recent-release prices correct. These are TCG Vault’s US-dollar, international tracking figures—not Collectr percentages and not Australian sold-price data—so they should be used as directional context rather than direct valuations for Australian stock.

Reprints and the modern price reset

NBTC has observed that reprints of modern products in the United States, particularly around Ascended Heroes and other high-profile sets, are putting downward pressure on the market. There is a credible supply-side explanation: when more product becomes available, collectors can open new packs and singles become easier to source. Buyers who previously paid a scarcity premium may become less willing to do so.

However, a US restock does not guarantee an equivalent Australian restock or an identical price response. Australian availability depends on local distribution and allocations, while Australian card prices also reflect exchange rates, shipping, local demand and the depth of domestic supply. An Australian retailer should therefore monitor local buy offers and completed sales rather than assume that a US price movement will pass through one-for-one.

The question is how long the softer conditions last. NBTC expects Mega Evolution—Delta Reign to bring fresh attention to Pokémon. The official Pokémon announcement gives November 6, 2026 as the expansion’s release date.

A new set can redirect spending and lift interest in the game, but it does not automatically restore prices for earlier cards. The likely near-term test is whether new-release demand brings customers back into the wider singles market—or simply shifts their spending towards the newest product.

30th Celebration: attention without broad price strength

The Pokémon TCG’s 30th Celebration expansion launched on September 16, 2026, with over 150 cards and a Classic Collection featuring iconic cards from across the game’s history.

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The anniversary gives the release a clear collector proposition: nostalgia, recognisable Pokémon and a reason for lapsed fans to revisit the hobby.

NBTC reports that both English and Japanese 30th Celebration products are attracting attention, even though many singles are trading at prices the store considers very low. This is an important distinction between interest in the product and value retention in individual cards. A release can be popular to open and collect while abundant supply or a large checklist keeps many singles inexpensive.

The Japanese market also illustrates why early pricing needs caution. Prices published shortly after launch are snapshots of a young market, not proof of stable long-term value. Early demand, initial supply and high-profile chase cards can create dramatic differences between individual cards and the wider set.

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For collectors, the 30th Celebration thesis is therefore strongest when based on the particular card: artwork, character significance, rarity, print treatment, condition and long-term collector appeal. “Anniversary set” alone is not enough to establish that a card will appreciate.

Japanese Pokémon products: demand is selective

NBTC reports that Japanese products are moving slowly overall. That does not mean every Japanese release is weak; it means the store is seeing slower turnover across its Japanese-product inventory.

Japanese cards can appeal through distinctive print treatments, exclusive releases and particular artwork. But that appeal must translate into enough buyers at a price that makes sense for the Australian market. A card can be desirable to a small group of collectors while remaining difficult to sell quickly at retail.

For inventory planning, Japanese products should be assessed by actual turnover and customer enquiries rather than by the assumption that Japanese-language cards always command a premium. The 30th Celebration release is a particularly useful test case: high initial attention should be measured against subsequent sell-through, not simply social-media visibility or early chase-card prices.

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PART 4 Pokémon Watchlist & Sleeper Cards

This section is collector-focused, not tournament-focused. Pokémon sleeper candidates should be assessed through collecting demand, artwork, character appeal, scarcity, condition and the availability of comparable copies—not competitive results.

No individual card is presented here as a verified percentage gainer because a reliable, card-specific Collectr percentage change for the reporting window could not be verified from accessible public data. The candidates below are research themes to investigate, not claims that particular cards have already risen.

Watchlist A: Vintage cards with established collector appeal

NBTC’s strongest firsthand signal is rising interest in vintage Pokémon. The next step is to determine where that demand is concentrated.

  • Older-era holos and distinctive artwork: Cards with recognisable artwork, limited supply in high condition, and a collector base beyond current competitive play deserve close monitoring.
  • Vintage promos: Promos can have a different supply profile from ordinary set cards. Their appeal depends on the distribution history, the Pokémon featured and the condition of surviving copies.
  • Older sets with strong collector identity: The international September data for Aquapolis, POP Series 1 and POP Series 4 provides a reason to investigate older sets further, but does not establish that every card from those sets is rising.

What to verify before buying: recent completed sales, the number of available copies, condition-adjusted price differences, and whether demand persists beyond a small number of high-priced transactions.

Watchlist B: 30th Celebration cards with long-term appeal

The anniversary release creates a broad pool of cards, but a sensible collector watchlist should be selective.

  • Iconic Pokémon: Familiar characters may have a larger potential collector audience than less recognisable subjects, although this does not guarantee better returns.
  • Distinctive artwork or print treatments: Cards that stand apart visually from routine set releases may have a stronger reason to be collected individually.
  • Cards tied to the Classic Collection concept: Nostalgia is a legitimate demand driver, but collectors should distinguish original vintage cards from anniversary reprints. They serve different purposes and need not share the same price trajectory.

The key signal will be whether demand persists after the initial anniversary excitement and whether prices stabilise once more product reaches collectors. Low prices may offer greater accessibility, but they are not proof of undervaluation.

Watchlist C: Japanese anniversary cards

Japanese 30th Celebration cards warrant separate tracking because the language, printings and local collector preferences differ from the English market. The Japanese market’s early pricing snapshots show that individual chase cards can be valued very differently from the bulk of a set.

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The best candidates for further research are cards where character demand, distinctive artwork and identifiable scarcity overlap. Avoid assuming that a high launch price will persist; equally, avoid assuming that a broad set-price decline makes every card a bargain.

Pokémon sleeper methodology for the next report

For each shortlisted card, NBTC Research should track:

  • Collectr’s percentage change over the exact reporting window, if verifiable.
  • Recent Australian completed sales where available.
  • Number and condition of comparable listings.
  • Whether interest appears collector-led or driven by short-term speculation.
  • Evidence of new supply, reprints or anniversary-related alternatives.

This approach is designed to identify potential sleepers without presenting speculation as established market performance.

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PART 5 One Piece Market Intelligence

OP17: strong local demand, but supply remains the key variable

NBTC reports that OP17 was a major success at the store, with substantial demand for sealed product and multiple events drawing more than 32 players. The store also reports several CREW cards being pulled in-store. These observations point to strong local engagement with the release, although they are not a measure of national sales or total player numbers.

The distinction between sealed demand and singles demand is important. Sealed product appeals to customers who want the opening experience or to collect unopened displays; singles buyers may instead be looking for particular characters, leaders or cards required for a deck. Strong demand in one category does not automatically mean that all singles from the set will appreciate.

The international September price data reinforces the need for this distinction. TCG Vault’s eligible One Piece singles index fell 5.7% over September, while its 100 highest-value cards rose 1.6%.

This is not a contradiction of NBTC’s strong OP17 experience: the index measures a different pool of cards and excludes newer releases until they meet its age threshold. It shows why a successful launch and a rising market-wide singles index are not the same thing.

The December reprint question

NBTC is anticipating a December OP17 reprint. The potential effect is straightforward: if meaningful additional supply reaches the market, sealed-product scarcity premiums may come under pressure, and the prices of singles could soften if more packs are opened.

However, the exact timing, scale and Australian allocation of a reprint need to be treated as unconfirmed unless supported by a clear publisher or distributor announcement. A reprint in one market does not necessarily arrive in Australia at the same time or in the same quantities.

For retailers and collectors, the practical approach is to avoid basing a buy decision solely on the assumption that OP17 will remain difficult to source. Track actual availability and sold prices as the reprint window approaches.

EB05 Heroines Edition Vol. 2: a release with competitive interest

Australian retailer listings identify the One Piece Card Game: Extra Booster Display – Heroines Edition Vol. 2 (EB-05) for October 30, 2026.

NBTC expects a Heroines Cup linked to EB05 to generate interest, but reports that initial box allocations are very low.

Low allocations can intensify attention ahead of release, particularly when players want new cards and collectors want to open the product. They can also frustrate customers and push secondary-market prices above levels that can be sustained once supply improves.

The event opportunity is therefore real, but the market outcome remains uncertain. The key indicators will be confirmed event details, local product availability, the performance of the new cards after players begin using them, and whether customers can obtain product at reasonable prices.

OP18: anticipation is not yet evidence

NBTC expects OP18 to attract strong attention, with speculation that new leaders will drive interest. This is a plausible catalyst for renewed deckbuilding and singles demand, but the size and direction of the effect cannot be established before the relevant card information, supply and market response are clearer.

Market implication: treat early discussion as a signal to monitor customer enquiries and pre-release demand, not as proof that sealed displays or particular singles will rise. Strong interest can produce a short-term premium, but supply, competitive usefulness and the actual desirability of the new cards will determine what lasts.

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PART 6 One Piece Watchlist & Market Analysis

Watchlist A: OP17 sealed product

Thesis: strong release demand may support continued interest, but the anticipated December reprint creates a clear supply risk.

NBTC’s OP17 event attendance and sealed-product demand are encouraging local signals. The main question is whether demand remains stronger than supply once the release window passes. A reprint could improve accessibility while reducing the premium buyers are prepared to pay for scarce displays.

Monitor:

  • Confirmed reprint timing and Australian allocation.
  • Local sealed-product sell-through versus replenishment.
  • Whether secondary-market prices remain firm after new supply arrives.
  • Whether demand is concentrated in unopened displays or shifts towards specific singles.

Avoid assuming that a successful launch guarantees long-term sealed appreciation.

Watchlist B: EB05 and Heroines Cup demand

The October 30 retailer-listed release date for EB05 gives the store a near-term checkpoint.

NBTC’s reported low initial allocation and anticipated Heroines Cup create two potential demand drivers: limited access to sealed product and interest in cards relevant to the event.

The main uncertainty is how much demand is driven by opening the product, competitive deckbuilding or collecting. Those groups may value different cards and respond differently when supply changes.

What would strengthen the thesis: confirmed event participation, strong local enquiries, limited replenishment after release and sustained singles demand after players have had time to test the cards.

Watchlist C: OP18 leaders and early singles

New leaders can influence which cards players want to buy, but the market should not price in an unconfirmed competitive outcome. Until the full card pool, availability and competitive results are known, OP18 is best treated as an upcoming demand catalyst, not a verified investment opportunity.

For singles buying, prioritise cards with demonstrable customer demand and sensible replacement costs. For sealed product, compare the likely availability after release with the premium being paid before the market has settled.

The organised-play affordability issue

One Piece’s competitive scene can create strong recurring demand for singles, but the cost of assembling a competitive deck can also become a barrier for new players. This is an important commercial tension: expensive cards may benefit some existing owners while discouraging the next wave of players from joining.

For stores, accessible entry points matter. Beginner-friendly events, clear deck-cost expectations and affordable singles alternatives can help convert curiosity into participation. More players can support a healthier long-term market, but only if the cost of joining remains manageable.

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PART 7 Riftbound Market Intelligence

A growing player base is beginning to affect retail activity

NBTC reports a significant increase in Riftbound singles purchases, both in-store and online, alongside a rapidly growing local player base. This is one of the most important retail developments in the reporting period because it suggests the game is moving beyond launch curiosity and creating recurring demand for individual cards.

The international September picture is more mixed. TCG Vault’s eligible Riftbound singles index declined 4.4%, while its 100 highest-value cards increased 1.7%.

These results cover a limited subset of older eligible cards and are not a complete measure of Riftbound’s market, particularly its newest releases or sealed product.

The contrast is commercially useful: player growth and falling card prices can coexist. More players may increase demand for playable singles, but increased supply, changing deck choices and the release of new sets can still push individual prices down.

September bans and the evolving metagame

Riot’s September ban-list update, effective September 18, 2026, added Ekko, Recurrent and Stacked Deck to the Standard and Constructed 2v2 ban lists. Riot explained that the Ekko ban was intended to address an unhealthy infinite-combo play pattern, while the Stacked Deck ban targeted consistency and card-selection concerns in Chaos strategies, including Kennen builds.

These are confirmed competitive changes. NBTC’s observation that green is looking stronger is a separate local metagame assessment; it should not be treated as a confirmed national ranking without broader tournament results.

The commercial effects of bans can be immediate. Cards that lose their place in a common deck may see reduced demand, while cards in emerging strategies can attract attention. However, the direction of any specific card’s price depends on how players adapt, whether the card remains useful in other decks, and how much supply is available.

For a retailer, the best response is to watch actual singles requests and deck lists after the ban takes effect, rather than making large speculative purchases based only on an expected colour shift.

Radiance: the next major catalyst

Riot’s official overview lists Riftbound: Radiance for release on October 23, 2026, with pre-release events scheduled for October 16–22.

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That timing aligns with NBTC’s report of two in-store pre-release events on Friday, October 16, and Saturday, October 17.

The set introduces new legends and mechanics, including Deploy, Show Off and Disarm.

New mechanics can change the demand for existing cards as players discover synergies, while new legends can draw attention to previously overlooked strategies.

For NBTC, the launch offers a chance to grow the player community and increase singles activity. For the broader market, it introduces uncertainty: some older cards may become more valuable if new synergies increase their use, while others may lose demand as players move towards the new set.

Retail implications

Riftbound currently presents a different opportunity from the softer modern Pokémon segment. NBTC is seeing direct evidence of growing local participation and singles demand. That is a stronger basis for stocking playable cards than simply assuming the game’s popularity will push every card upward.

The priorities should be:

  • Keep commonly requested playable singles available.
  • Track deck changes following bans and the Radiance release.
  • Separate competitive demand from collector demand.
  • Monitor the speed at which new cards turn over, not just their initial asking prices.
  • Use local events to identify recurring player needs before expanding speculative stock.

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PART 8 Riftbound Competitive Watchlist & Sleeper Cards

This chapter focuses on competitive demand, where tournament performance, deck construction and format changes are relevant.

Watchlist A: Cards affected by the September bans

The Ekko, Recurrent and Stacked Deck bans are confirmed changes to the format.

The first question is which strategies lose consistency or cease to function as previously built. The second is which alternatives become more attractive as players adjust their decks.

For singles buying, the safest approach is to avoid treating every card associated with a previously strong deck as permanently undesirable. Some may retain value in other strategies, while others may recover if the metagame evolves.

Signal to monitor: recurring demand in local deck lists after the bans, rather than one-off price spikes immediately after the announcement.

Watchlist B: Green strategies

NBTC reports that green is looking stronger than ever in its local assessment of the post-ban format. This makes green staples and cards that support emerging green strategies worth monitoring.

At this stage, however, the claim should be framed as a local metagame observation, not a proven global shift. A robust sleeper assessment would need results from multiple events, repeated deck appearances and evidence that players continue buying the relevant cards after the initial adjustment period.

Potential buying criteria:

  • The card appears repeatedly in successful lists.
  • It is difficult to replace with a cheaper alternative.
  • Demand is visible across more than one local event.
  • Available supply is limited enough to matter.
  • The card retains utility across multiple strategies, rather than depending on a single short-lived deck.

Watchlist C: Radiance-era synergies

Radiance releases on October 23, with new mechanics and legends officially confirmed by Riot.

The most interesting sleeper candidates may emerge from interactions between new cards and older pieces that were previously overlooked.

But the timing matters. Before release, synergy ideas are hypotheses. During pre-release and the first weeks of play, they can be tested against actual deck performance. After that, the market can begin to distinguish a card that is genuinely useful from one that received temporary attention.

Recommended monitoring window: compare local singles requests before Radiance, during the first week of play, and after the initial deckbuilding period. This will help distinguish short-term launch demand from persistent competitive demand.

Riftbound sleeper-card methodology

For future NBTC Research reports, each competitive sleeper should be supported by:

  • The relevant format and ban-list status.
  • Repeated appearance in tournament or local deck lists.
  • Evidence of actual player demand.
  • Supply and availability.
  • A verified Collectr percentage movement where accessible.
  • A clear distinction between a competitive hypothesis and a demonstrated result.

This keeps the watchlist actionable for the store without presenting early speculation as established market performance.

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PART 9 Australian TCG Investment Watch

This section is market analysis, not personal financial advice. Trading cards are illiquid collectibles, and prices can fall sharply.

The strongest signal: divergence, not a universal boom

The reporting period does not support a blanket conclusion that all TCG cards are rising. NBTC is seeing vintage Pokémon strength and increased Riftbound activity, while modern Pokémon singles and Japanese products are moving more slowly. One Piece sealed demand is strong at the store, but international September singles data was weaker overall.

TCG Vault’s September index recorded the following changes across eligible English singles worth at least US$10:

GameSeptember index changeWhat it does—and does not—tell us
Pokémon+2.5%Broad eligible singles index rose, but individual modern sets still fell
One Piece−5.7%Eligible singles index fell despite NBTC’s strong OP17 release experience
Riftbound−4.4%Eligible index fell despite stronger local singles demand reported by NBTC

Source: TCG Vault, September 2026; TCGplayer and Cardmarket history, not Collectr or Australian completed sales.

The lesson is to separate retail velocity, collector demand, competitive demand and investment performance. A card can sell quickly without appreciating; a card can rise in price but be difficult to sell; and a game can gain players while its overall singles index declines.

Vintage Pokémon: a thesis that needs card-level evidence

NBTC’s vintage experience is the most direct reason to investigate older Pokémon cards more closely. The international September report also recorded strength in several older sets, including Aquapolis and POP Series 4.

That supports further investigation, but it does not justify buying every vintage card at any price. The strongest candidates are those with a clear collector base, attractive artwork or character appeal, and a limited supply of well-preserved copies. Condition is particularly important because a small difference in grade can create a large difference in value.

For the store, a good buying decision must account for both the price offered to acquire the card and the realistic time required to resell it. A rising asking price is not a substitute for completed sales.

Modern Pokémon: reprints and new releases create two-sided risk

The modern Pokémon market faces competing forces. Reprints can expand supply and reduce scarcity premiums; a new release such as Delta Reign, scheduled for November 6, can renew customer attention.

Neither force guarantees a price outcome. New product can draw spending away from earlier sets, while reprints can make cards more affordable and increase participation. For inventory decisions, the useful questions are whether demand remains after replenishment, whether local stock is turning over, and whether the card’s appeal is primarily temporary scarcity or lasting collector interest.

One Piece: separate sealed scarcity from card utility

OP17’s local success is a strong store-level sales signal, but the expected December reprint makes supply the key risk to watch. EB05 and OP18 provide further catalysts, although their eventual effect depends on availability, card demand and the competitive environment.

A disciplined approach avoids paying a premium based solely on event hype or pre-release speculation. Competitive cards should be assessed against the likelihood that players continue using them; sealed product should be assessed against the probability and timing of replenishment.

Riftbound: demand growth is not the same as price growth

Riftbound’s expanding player base and singles purchases at NBTC create a credible retail opportunity. The investment question is whether that activity produces persistent demand for particular cards or mainly follows new releases and metagame changes.

The September international index decline demonstrates why a growing game does not automatically mean rising card prices.

For NBTC, the most useful strategy is to prioritise stock with demonstrated player demand and to reassess positions after ban-list changes and Radiance.

Collectr percentage data: verification status

Collectr remains the preferred source for individual card price-percentage movements in NBTC Research. However, I could not verify a sufficiently reliable, publicly accessible set of Collectr percentage changes for the specific cards and reporting window in this report. I have therefore not invented Collectr figures or relabelled another provider’s data as Collectr.

The TCG Vault percentages above are explicitly identified as a separate international index. A future card-by-card table should only be added when the Collectr movements can be checked directly for the relevant dates and printings.

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PART 10 Around the Hobby

Dragon Ball Fusion World: FB11 releases October 16

The English release date for Dragon Ball Super Card Game Fusion World — Brightness of Hope [FB11] is Friday, October 16, 2026. Bandai’s official website lists the release-event period as October 16–22, and the official Dragon Ball site also confirms October 16 for the English release.

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NBTC reports that Dragon Ball sealed product remains popular. FB11 therefore provides a timely opportunity to test whether that interest translates into release-week sales and ongoing demand for singles.

The set includes 123 card types, with five leaders and three Secret Rares; its official product promotion highlights Saiyan leaders and alternate-art versions of the Secret Rares.

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These features provide clear collector and opening incentives, although they do not guarantee sustained sealed premiums or increases in individual card prices.

What NBTC should monitor: release-week sell-through, requests for specific alternate arts, repeat purchases after launch, and whether sealed demand remains strong once customers have had a chance to open the set.

Naruto Card Game: a confirmed 2027 launch, not just hobby speculation

The upcoming Naruto TCG is now more concrete than general industry discussion might suggest. Following its earlier announcement, the official Naruto website confirmed at New York Comic Con on October 11 that the new Naruto Card Game is scheduled for a worldwide launch in June 2027. The announcement also confirmed three starter decks centred on Naruto Uzumaki, Sasuke Uchiha and Gaara, along with a first booster set titled Here Comes Naruto Uzumaki!

NARUTO OFFICIAL SITE (NARUTO & BORUTO)

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For Australian stores, the opportunity is to assess interest early without overcommitting before product details and local distribution become clear. Naruto has an established entertainment audience, but franchise recognition alone does not guarantee that a new TCG will develop a lasting player base.

Useful early indicators include:

  • Customer enquiries and requests to be notified about release details.
  • Distributor information on Australian availability and allocations.
  • Starter-deck accessibility for new players.
  • Whether organised-play support and repeat events are established.
  • The balance between collectible demand and an active, recurring player community.

Release events as a retail and community channel

NBTC reports that major TCG release events are drawing strong numbers, including OP17 events with more than 32 players. The store also has two Riftbound Radiance pre-release events planned for October 16 and 17.

These are valuable local indicators because an event can generate sales beyond entry fees: sealed product purchases, singles demand, trades and repeat visits. Events also help the store identify which cards players need as a new set enters circulation.

However, attendance should not be treated as proof of national growth on its own. For a stronger internal measure, NBTC could track attendance, sell-through on event days, singles sales during the following week, and how many players return for subsequent events. This would help distinguish a one-off release spike from lasting community growth.

A wider industry lesson

The strongest games for a local retailer are not necessarily those with the largest individual card prices. A sustainable play community can generate repeated singles demand, event attendance and ongoing customer relationships. Collector-led products can also perform well, but their turnover may depend more heavily on release cycles, nostalgia and individual card appeal.

For NBTC, the opportunity is to build a balanced business across collector demand, sealed releases, affordable singles and organised play—rather than relying on one category to remain strong indefinitely.

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PART 11 Market Outlook — November 2026 and Beyond

Pokémon: watch the vintage–modern divide

The next month will help clarify whether NBTC’s reported vintage strength persists while modern Pokémon singles remain under pressure.

Mega Evolution—Delta Reign is officially scheduled for November 6, 2026.

It is a near-term catalyst for new product demand, but the effect on earlier sets is uncertain. Customers may return to buying singles across the game, or they may concentrate spending on the newest release.

The key indicators are:

  • Whether vintage buying activity continues beyond isolated high-value transactions.
  • Whether modern singles stabilise after recent reprint-related price pressure.
  • Whether 30th Celebration products maintain customer interest after the initial anniversary launch.
  • Whether Japanese product turnover improves or remains slower than English product turnover.

Outlook: selective rather than uniformly bullish. NBTC’s observations favour close monitoring of vintage stock and careful buying of modern singles where supply remains uncertain.

One Piece: reprints, EB05 and OP18 will test demand

One Piece has several near-term variables. The anticipated OP17 December reprint could change sealed-product availability; EB05 is listed for October 30; and OP18 is attracting early interest from customers expecting new leaders.

These developments could sustain customer engagement, but the outlook depends on confirmed supply and actual demand after release. A successful launch does not guarantee that prices will continue rising once additional product becomes available.

Outlook: positive for local event engagement based on NBTC’s firsthand observations, but more uncertain for price appreciation. Prioritise sell-through and repeat demand over pre-release speculation.

Riftbound: Radiance is the next major test

Riftbound enters the next phase with the Radiance release on October 23, following pre-release events from October 16–22.

NBTC’s reported increase in singles purchases and player participation gives the store a concrete reason to keep developing its Riftbound offering.

The important question is whether the post-ban metagame produces stable demand for specific cards or whether demand shifts quickly as new decks appear. NBTC’s observation that green is strengthening is worth testing against event results and ongoing player purchases.

Outlook: encouraging for community development and retail activity, with card-level outcomes dependent on the evolving metagame. Stock decisions should follow repeated demand signals rather than assume the entire game’s singles market will rise.

Dragon Ball and Naruto: opportunities at different stages

FB11’s October 16 English release gives Dragon Ball Fusion World an immediate sales checkpoint.

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NBTC’s report of continuing sealed demand is encouraging, but release-week performance and repeat purchases will be more informative than anticipation alone.

Naruto, by contrast, is a longer-term opportunity. The worldwide launch is confirmed for June 2027, but Australian distribution and local organised-play details will need to be followed as they emerge.

NARUTO OFFICIAL SITE (NARUTO & BORUTO)

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What NBTC Research should track next

The next report should compare September and October observations against November results using a consistent scorecard.

AreaWhat to measureWhy it matters
Vintage PokémonBuying enquiries, acquisition costs, sell-through and conditionTests whether reported demand is sustained and profitable
Modern PokémonSingles turnover, replenishment, and price changesMeasures whether the recent softness stabilises
Japanese PokémonDays to sell and repeat customer demandDistinguishes niche interest from broad turnover
One PieceSealed availability, singles demand and event attendanceTests the impact of reprints and upcoming releases
RiftboundEvent attendance, repeat participation and singles requestsMeasures whether player growth is becoming recurring retail activity
Dragon BallFB11 launch-week sales and post-release demandSeparates opening hype from ongoing demand
NarutoEnquiries, local distribution updates and event interestGauges the market before the 2027 launch

Final assessment

September and October to date suggest that the Australian TCG retail opportunity is increasingly about understanding the specific demand behind each product, not relying on broad market momentum.

NBTC’s firsthand observations point to vintage Pokémon, the $10–$20 singles bracket, One Piece sealed releases and Riftbound singles as important areas to watch. Modern Pokémon and Japanese products require closer attention to turnover and capital tied up in stock. Upcoming releases offer opportunities to bring customers into the store, but their long-term value depends on what happens after launch.

For Northern Beaches Trading Cards, the most defensible approach is to combine local sales and event evidence with transparent external market data. That means distinguishing Australian retail experience from international price indexes, verifying card-level percentage changes before publishing them, and treating forecasts as hypotheses to test rather than outcomes already established.

The central outlook for November is therefore selective opportunity with a strong emphasis on stock turnover, confirmed supply and recurring customer demand.

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Research sources and methodology

The report draws on NBTC’s firsthand retail observations and the following external sources:

  • TCG Vault — September 2026 TCG Market Report: international price-index movements for Pokémon, One Piece, Riftbound and other games. This uses TCGplayer and Cardmarket data and is not an Australian retail index or a Collectr report.

TCG Vault

  • The Pokémon Company — 30th Celebration: official expansion information and September 16 release date.

Pokemon

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  • The Pokémon Company — Mega Evolution—Delta Reign: official November 6, 2026 release date.

Pokemon

  • Riot Games — Riftbound: official Radiance release details and September ban-list changes.

Riftbound

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  • Australian retailer listing — EB05 Heroines Edition Vol. 2: October 30, 2026 release date. This is a retailer listing, not confirmation of the anticipated Heroines Cup schedule.

Gap Games

  • Bandai — Dragon Ball Super Card Game Fusion World: official FB11 release-event dates and English release information.

Official Web Site

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  • Naruto official website and VIZ: confirmation of the worldwide Naruto Card Game launch in June 2027.

NARUTO OFFICIAL SITE (NARUTO & BORUTO)

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Data limitation: I could not verify individual-card Collectr percentage movements for this reporting period from accessible public data. Accordingly, the report does not attribute any percentage changes to Collectr. TCG Vault’s figures are presented separately and explicitly labelled with their own source and methodology. No national Australian sales figures have been inferred from NBTC’s store-level experience.

Publication note: This report is prepared as at October 13, 2026. October observations are month-to-date, and any expected reprints, future events or unconfirmed competitive outcomes should be updated as official information becomes available.

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